{
  "assumptions": [],
  "data_window": {
    "daily_prices": [
      "2021-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "detailed_intervals": [
      "2025-10-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "long_history": [
      "2015-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ]
  },
  "disclosure": "Analysis and drafting were model-assisted; sources, code, assumptions, and evidence hashes are disclosed.",
  "figure": {
    "alt": "Chart for Are P10, P50, and P90 price forecasts actually calibrated?: mean absolute nominal-coverage deviation, shown as nominal 50, observed 50, nominal 95, observed 95.",
    "height": 675,
    "labels": [
      "nominal 50",
      "observed 50",
      "nominal 95",
      "observed 95"
    ],
    "url": "/research-media/home-papers/are-p10-p50-and-p90-price-forecasts-actually-calibrated.webp",
    "values": [
      50,
      25.60121015067407,
      95,
      74.38494290245838
    ],
    "width": 1200
  },
  "licence": "See /legal/data-licensing and docs/voltcast/LICENSING.md",
  "limitations": [
    "Only rows matched to immutable serving lineage are treated as live-service evidence."
  ],
  "method_family": "lineage-matched proper scoring, calibration, blocked uncertainty intervals, and regime stratification",
  "multiplicity": "Within-family Holm control applies to inferential claims; this descriptive result makes no unadjusted significance claim.",
  "paper_id": "VOLT-HOME-WP-053",
  "primary_result": {
    "bootstrap_95_interval": null,
    "interpretation": "Lower deviation means observed interval coverage is closer to the declared probability.",
    "interval_method": "not reported for this estimand",
    "metric": "mean absolute nominal-coverage deviation",
    "sample_size": 25220,
    "unit": "fraction",
    "value": 0.25785235130848533
  },
  "provenance": {
    "analysis_code_sha256": "57c57de79cdab2b5b6d6c54c485cb5162598c5ba0b0bfe995da40d75e6c52ba9",
    "protocol_sha256": "adb36bf6b447af9f96339249b8becaefc20422499cca1977242866347a97bd4b",
    "read_only_transaction": true,
    "registry_sha256": "7bcb91d7476d0a69fe9fa75a5c7782f8117e0153f82f9112b7e1d307d3943717",
    "snapshot_sha256": "f77e3ae328f93916e53b1bab7516e1d0ac740a0dbf424cd2b73c81fee2559318",
    "source_registry_sha256": "07949550ac443ff673fda5c0209b99f137544f3ffecf6775f109bb9d09663bd6",
    "statement_timeout_seconds": 180
  },
  "publication_cutoff": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
  "schema": "volt-home-paper-evidence-v1",
  "secondary_results": [
    {
      "name": "mean coverage50",
      "unit": "fraction",
      "value": 0.2560121015067407
    },
    {
      "name": "mean coverage95",
      "unit": "fraction",
      "value": 0.7438494290245837
    }
  ],
  "series": "home-energy-working-papers-v1",
  "slug": "are-p10-p50-and-p90-price-forecasts-actually-calibrated",
  "source_tables": [
    "forecast_accuracy",
    "forecast_serving_lineage",
    "risk_accuracy",
    "generation_mix",
    "zone_temp_weighted"
  ],
  "status": "measured",
  "title": "Are P10, P50, and P90 price forecasts actually calibrated?"
}