{
  "assumptions": [],
  "data_window": {
    "daily_prices": [
      "2021-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "detailed_intervals": [
      "2025-10-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "long_history": [
      "2015-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ]
  },
  "disclosure": "Analysis and drafting were model-assisted; sources, code, assumptions, and evidence hashes are disclosed.",
  "figure": {
    "alt": "Chart for Did 15-minute trading create volatility—or reveal it?: within-hour share of observed quarter-hour price variance, shown as P10, Median, P90.",
    "height": 675,
    "labels": [
      "P10",
      "Median",
      "P90"
    ],
    "url": "/research-media/home-papers/did-15-minute-trading-create-volatilityor-reveal-it.webp",
    "values": [
      3.626555099775281,
      9.23037937576247,
      21.960395593059015
    ],
    "width": 1200
  },
  "licence": "See /legal/data-licensing and docs/voltcast/LICENSING.md",
  "limitations": [
    "Detailed interval analysis uses ten representative European bidding zones from 2025-10-01.",
    "No causal before/after claim is made because adoption and regime changes coincide."
  ],
  "method_family": "paired interval reconstruction, clock-safe counterfactuals, and day-block bootstrap",
  "multiplicity": "Within-family Holm control applies to inferential claims; this descriptive result makes no unadjusted significance claim.",
  "paper_id": "VOLT-HOME-WP-006",
  "primary_result": {
    "bootstrap_95_interval": [
      10.968255529079848,
      11.628840213097948
    ],
    "interpretation": "The statistic decomposes observed variance; it does not identify a causal effect of the market redesign.",
    "interval_method": "day/row-block mean bootstrap",
    "metric": "within-hour share of observed quarter-hour price variance",
    "sample_size": 3340,
    "unit": "%",
    "value": 11.623292072577117
  },
  "provenance": {
    "analysis_code_sha256": "57c57de79cdab2b5b6d6c54c485cb5162598c5ba0b0bfe995da40d75e6c52ba9",
    "protocol_sha256": "adb36bf6b447af9f96339249b8becaefc20422499cca1977242866347a97bd4b",
    "read_only_transaction": true,
    "registry_sha256": "7bcb91d7476d0a69fe9fa75a5c7782f8117e0153f82f9112b7e1d307d3943717",
    "snapshot_sha256": "f77e3ae328f93916e53b1bab7516e1d0ac740a0dbf424cd2b73c81fee2559318",
    "source_registry_sha256": "07949550ac443ff673fda5c0209b99f137544f3ffecf6775f109bb9d09663bd6",
    "statement_timeout_seconds": 180
  },
  "publication_cutoff": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
  "schema": "volt-home-paper-evidence-v1",
  "secondary_results": [],
  "series": "home-energy-working-papers-v1",
  "slug": "did-15-minute-trading-create-volatilityor-reveal-it",
  "source_tables": [
    "zones",
    "day_ahead_prices",
    "grid_revisions",
    "auction_publications",
    "ingestion_runs"
  ],
  "status": "measured",
  "title": "Did 15-minute trading create volatility—or reveal it?"
}