{
  "assumptions": [],
  "data_window": {
    "daily_prices": [
      "2021-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "detailed_intervals": [
      "2025-10-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "long_history": [
      "2015-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ]
  },
  "disclosure": "Analysis and drafting were model-assisted; sources, code, assumptions, and evidence hashes are disclosed.",
  "figure": {
    "alt": "Chart for How quickly does forecast skill decay from day one to day seven?: MAE increase from shortest to longest exact horizon, shown as d1, d2, d3, d4, d5, d6, d7.",
    "height": 675,
    "labels": [
      "d1",
      "d2",
      "d3",
      "d4",
      "d5",
      "d6",
      "d7"
    ],
    "url": "/research-media/home-papers/how-quickly-does-forecast-skill-decay-from-day-one-to-day-seven.webp",
    "values": [
      60.718384096109844,
      75.86942822966508,
      89.23258108192621,
      90.66425893915756,
      89.97785701917131,
      89.86564108091223,
      86.0936004996877
    ],
    "width": 1200
  },
  "licence": "See /legal/data-licensing and docs/voltcast/LICENSING.md",
  "limitations": [
    "Only rows matched to immutable serving lineage are treated as live-service evidence."
  ],
  "method_family": "lineage-matched proper scoring, calibration, blocked uncertainty intervals, and regime stratification",
  "multiplicity": "Within-family Holm control applies to inferential claims; this descriptive result makes no unadjusted significance claim.",
  "paper_id": "VOLT-HOME-WP-052",
  "primary_result": {
    "bootstrap_95_interval": null,
    "interpretation": "Exact-horizon lineage prevents a day-one score from being presented as seven-day skill.",
    "interval_method": "not reported for this estimand",
    "metric": "MAE increase from shortest to longest exact horizon",
    "sample_size": 17750,
    "unit": "EUR/MWh",
    "value": 25.375216403577852
  },
  "provenance": {
    "analysis_code_sha256": "57c57de79cdab2b5b6d6c54c485cb5162598c5ba0b0bfe995da40d75e6c52ba9",
    "protocol_sha256": "adb36bf6b447af9f96339249b8becaefc20422499cca1977242866347a97bd4b",
    "read_only_transaction": true,
    "registry_sha256": "7bcb91d7476d0a69fe9fa75a5c7782f8117e0153f82f9112b7e1d307d3943717",
    "snapshot_sha256": "f77e3ae328f93916e53b1bab7516e1d0ac740a0dbf424cd2b73c81fee2559318",
    "source_registry_sha256": "07949550ac443ff673fda5c0209b99f137544f3ffecf6775f109bb9d09663bd6",
    "statement_timeout_seconds": 180
  },
  "publication_cutoff": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
  "schema": "volt-home-paper-evidence-v1",
  "secondary_results": [],
  "series": "home-energy-working-papers-v1",
  "slug": "how-quickly-does-forecast-skill-decay-from-day-one-to-day-seven",
  "source_tables": [
    "forecast_accuracy",
    "forecast_serving_lineage",
    "risk_accuracy",
    "generation_mix",
    "zone_temp_weighted"
  ],
  "status": "measured",
  "title": "How quickly does forecast skill decay from day one to day seven?"
}