{
  "assumptions": [
    "4,000 kWh annual synthetic household",
    "35% flexible energy",
    "wholesale pass-through only",
    "no customer telemetry"
  ],
  "data_window": {
    "daily_prices": [
      "2021-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "detailed_intervals": [
      "2025-10-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "long_history": [
      "2015-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ]
  },
  "disclosure": "Analysis and drafting were model-assisted; sources, code, assumptions, and evidence hashes are disclosed.",
  "figure": {
    "alt": "Chart for What does bill value-at-risk reveal that average savings hide?: daily wholesale bill value-at-risk above median, shown as Median, P90, P95, P99.",
    "height": 675,
    "labels": [
      "Median",
      "P90",
      "P95",
      "P99"
    ],
    "url": "/research-media/home-papers/what-does-bill-value-at-risk-reveal-that-average-savings-hide.webp",
    "values": [
      1.1019364383561645,
      2.726372602739726,
      4.81004602739726,
      42.09422969863003
    ],
    "width": 1200
  },
  "licence": "See /legal/data-licensing and docs/voltcast/LICENSING.md",
  "limitations": [
    "Results are synthetic wholesale scenarios, not retail bills; taxes, supplier margin, network charges, VAT, and device losses are excluded unless varied."
  ],
  "method_family": "declared-profile tariff simulation, tail-risk accounting, stress periods, and assumption grids",
  "multiplicity": "Within-family Holm control applies to inferential claims; this descriptive result makes no unadjusted significance claim.",
  "paper_id": "VOLT-HOME-WP-082",
  "primary_result": {
    "bootstrap_95_interval": null,
    "interpretation": "Tail exposure reveals risk hidden by average savings.",
    "interval_method": "not reported for this estimand",
    "metric": "daily wholesale bill value-at-risk above median",
    "sample_size": 93161,
    "unit": "EUR/day at 4,000 kWh/year",
    "value": 3.7081095890410958
  },
  "provenance": {
    "analysis_code_sha256": "57c57de79cdab2b5b6d6c54c485cb5162598c5ba0b0bfe995da40d75e6c52ba9",
    "protocol_sha256": "adb36bf6b447af9f96339249b8becaefc20422499cca1977242866347a97bd4b",
    "read_only_transaction": true,
    "registry_sha256": "7bcb91d7476d0a69fe9fa75a5c7782f8117e0153f82f9112b7e1d307d3943717",
    "snapshot_sha256": "f77e3ae328f93916e53b1bab7516e1d0ac740a0dbf424cd2b73c81fee2559318",
    "source_registry_sha256": "07949550ac443ff673fda5c0209b99f137544f3ffecf6775f109bb9d09663bd6",
    "statement_timeout_seconds": 180
  },
  "publication_cutoff": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
  "schema": "volt-home-paper-evidence-v1",
  "secondary_results": [],
  "series": "home-energy-working-papers-v1",
  "slug": "what-does-bill-value-at-risk-reveal-that-average-savings-hide",
  "source_tables": [
    "day_ahead_prices",
    "forecast_accuracy",
    "bess_index_daily",
    "zone_load",
    "zone_holidays"
  ],
  "status": "measured",
  "title": "What does bill value-at-risk reveal that average savings hide?"
}