{
  "assumptions": [
    "Synthetic heat demand; no customer telemetry",
    "COP sensitivity declared per paper",
    "wholesale energy only"
  ],
  "data_window": {
    "daily_prices": [
      "2021-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "detailed_intervals": [
      "2025-10-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ],
    "long_history": [
      "2015-01-01",
      "2026-08-29"
    ]
  },
  "disclosure": "Analysis and drafting were model-assisted; sources, code, assumptions, and evidence hashes are disclosed.",
  "figure": {
    "alt": "Chart for When does heat-pump COP overwhelm the electricity-price signal?: difference in price signal per delivered heat between COP 1.8 and 4.0, shown as COP 1.8, COP 2.5, COP 3.2, COP 4.0.",
    "height": 675,
    "labels": [
      "COP 1.8",
      "COP 2.5",
      "COP 3.2",
      "COP 4.0"
    ],
    "url": "/research-media/home-papers/when-does-heat-pump-cop-overwhelm-the-electricity-price-signal.webp",
    "values": [
      194.73142749847437,
      140.20662779890156,
      109.53642796789184,
      87.62914237431347
    ],
    "width": 1200
  },
  "licence": "See /legal/data-licensing and docs/voltcast/LICENSING.md",
  "limitations": [
    "Daily temperature and price summaries cannot reproduce a building-specific thermal state."
  ],
  "method_family": "transparent reduced-order thermal scenarios with comfort, COP, rebound, and forecast sensitivities",
  "multiplicity": "Within-family Holm control applies to inferential claims; this descriptive result makes no unadjusted significance claim.",
  "paper_id": "VOLT-HOME-WP-042",
  "primary_result": {
    "bootstrap_95_interval": null,
    "interpretation": "Higher COP reduces electricity exposure per unit of delivered heat and can dominate modest price spreads.",
    "interval_method": "not reported for this estimand",
    "metric": "difference in price signal per delivered heat between COP 1.8 and 4.0",
    "sample_size": 2367,
    "unit": "EUR/MWh-heat",
    "value": 107.1022851241609
  },
  "provenance": {
    "analysis_code_sha256": "57c57de79cdab2b5b6d6c54c485cb5162598c5ba0b0bfe995da40d75e6c52ba9",
    "protocol_sha256": "adb36bf6b447af9f96339249b8becaefc20422499cca1977242866347a97bd4b",
    "read_only_transaction": true,
    "registry_sha256": "7bcb91d7476d0a69fe9fa75a5c7782f8117e0153f82f9112b7e1d307d3943717",
    "snapshot_sha256": "f77e3ae328f93916e53b1bab7516e1d0ac740a0dbf424cd2b73c81fee2559318",
    "source_registry_sha256": "07949550ac443ff673fda5c0209b99f137544f3ffecf6775f109bb9d09663bd6",
    "statement_timeout_seconds": 180
  },
  "publication_cutoff": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
  "schema": "volt-home-paper-evidence-v1",
  "secondary_results": [],
  "series": "home-energy-working-papers-v1",
  "slug": "when-does-heat-pump-cop-overwhelm-the-electricity-price-signal",
  "source_tables": [
    "day_ahead_prices",
    "zone_temp_weighted",
    "zone_load",
    "generation_mix",
    "forecasts"
  ],
  "status": "measured",
  "title": "When does heat-pump COP overwhelm the electricity-price signal?"
}