Daily guide · MK · 2026-08-04

Negative-price watch North Macedonia: this week's floor, and what's ahead

All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.

North Macedonia has yet to register a genuine negative-price event. This week's floor sat at 3,99 EUR/MWh, recorded on 28 July 2026 in hour 9, comfortably above zero. Across the week, negative hours numbered zero, and the year-to-date count of negative periods also remains at zero. The seven-day maximum negative probability held at zero, confirming no imminent risk on the current data.

For the reader, this means the negative-watch signal stays inactive. What does stand out is the pair of hours priced below 10 EUR/MWh this week: two such periods point to occasional soft mid-morning pricing, but not to the sustained oversupply that drives prices below zero elsewhere in Europe. The 28 July low near hour 9 fits the pattern of daytime solar-linked softness rather than structural surplus.

The concrete takeaway: treat North Macedonia as a low-floor, not a negative-floor market for now. With two sub-10 EUR/MWh hours but no negative prints and zero year-to-date negative periods, planning around a floor close to 4 EUR/MWh is more realistic than positioning for negative pricing this week.

When wind and solar produce more than a zone can consume or export, the day-ahead auction clears below zero — producers literally pay consumers to take power. Negative prices went from curiosity to structural feature across Europe, and for anyone with flexible load or storage they're the most interesting hours of the year. Here's where MK stands.

3.99

this week's floor (€/MWh), 2026-07-28 at 09:00 local

0 / 2

hours below €0 / below €10 this week

0

negative delivery periods in 2026 so far (MK)

The forward view

Our negative-price risk model (Brier-scored daily against climatology — record on /accuracy) currently puts the peak probability of a sub-zero period in MK over the next 7 days at 0%. That number updates daily via GET /v1/risk/negative/MK — a 14-day calendar of per-15-minute probabilities.

Never miss one again

The useful pattern isn't watching a dashboard — it's a webhook that fires when tomorrow's auction clears negative anywhere in your zone: 

curl -X POST -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"event": "negative_prices", "zone": "MK", "url": "https://your-app/hook"}' \
  https://voltcast.com/api/v1/webhooks

It delivers seconds after the 13:00 CET publication, HMAC-signed. Journalists and analysts: the live MK tracker has the all-time records, monthly history and a CSV download — free to cite with attribution. For the systematic view (which hours, which seasons, how deep), the full 2015+ archive is one bulk export away.

Live MK prices → All daily guides → Get a free API key →

Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/negative-watch-mk-2026-08-04".

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