Volt Temp · station-exact · publicly scored
European temperature outlook
Probabilistic daily Tmax/Tmin on the exact stations markets and weather contracts settle on — not city-center app readings. Paris settles on Le Bourget, which runs 1–3°C cooler than central Paris in heat events; CME's London contracts settle on Heathrow. The station is not a detail — it's the largest structural error in most temperature analysis, and this page names every gauge. Forecast distributions are verified against METAR observations every single day, losses included.
CME-city degree-day trackers
CME lists European weather futures on Amsterdam, Essen, London and Paris — HDD indices in winter, CAT (cumulative average temperature) in summer, settled on named city stations. We track the month-to-date index from our METAR-derived station days; the probabilistic projection of the final monthly settle (P10/P50/P90 while the month is still running) is part of the Volt Temp plan. Indicative tracking — not official settlement values.
The resolution-station registry
Every daily temperature market resolves on one named airport gauge, and stations have been swapped between market series before (Paris moved from Roissy-CDG to Le Bourget in April 2026 after a sensor affair that ended in a Météo-France criminal complaint). This registry documents which gauge is which — including our disclosed proxies — and flags stations that stop reporting. Always verify the named station in the specific market's own rules.
| City | Station | ICAO | Used by | Status | Notes |
|---|
Scored in public, like everything we ship
Three model versions run side by side and every one is scored daily against finalized METAR observations: climatology (day-of-year normals), volt-temp-0 (the raw ECMWF 51-member ensemble — the baseline any sophisticated user could build themselves), and volt-temp-1 (our trained model — it serves only once it beats the baseline on this board). CRPS and bucket Brier scores, losses included. The record is young — it starts accruing from today's first issuances and every day is kept.
Built for three kinds of desks
Energy & load forecasting
Temperature is Europe's #1 demand driver — France alone swings ~2 GW of load per winter °C. Our population-weighted zone temperature (the RTE/Enedis-style metric) ships as an API series on Pro and above, and as leakage-free features in the Quant matrix.
GET /v1/temperature/zone/{zone} →Weather-derivative & parametric desks
Daily HDD/CAT settle-index tracking for the CME European cities plus a probabilistic projection of the final monthly index — the distribution, not a point guess. Self-serve, instead of an enterprise data contract.
GET /v1/degree-days/{city} →Prediction-market analysts
Full Tmax/Tmin distributions in the exact 1°C buckets daily markets trade, on the exact resolution gauges, with station-integrity monitoring. We publish the forecast and its verified record — we never advise positions.
GET /v1/temperature/{station} →Volt Temp — €99/month
Station distributions & 1°C buckets · degree-day settle projections · population-weighted zone temperature · station-integrity alerts. Also included in Scale and Quant.
Informational and analytical use only — not financial, trading or wagering advice. Prediction-market participation is jurisdiction-restricted; always verify the named resolution source in each market's own rules. Degree-day indices are indicative tracking values, not official settlement data. Forecast inputs: Open-Meteo / ECMWF (CC BY 4.0). Observations: NOAA METAR (aviationweather.gov). Climatology: NOAA ISD. Free to cite with attribution ("Voltcast, voltcast.com/temperature").