Voltcast Research
Numbers first. Narrative second.
Everything published here is computed live from the same production database our API serves — negative-price records, capture rates, forecast scores (including our losses), temperature-demand data. If a piece could be written without our data, we don't publish it. Free to cite with attribution ("Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/research").
New: daily guides. One worked example per day — EV charging windows, negative-price watches, forecasting baselines — computed from that week's real auction data. Browse the guides →
Introducing the Voltcast Desk: a trading desk that shows its error bars
A real-time decision workspace for European power and weather markets — auctions, intraday, imbalance, outages, station weather and model run-drift in one screen, with data provenance and verified model scores on every tile.
Anatomy of a miss: the Sunday our models lost to a free baseline
On July 12, 2026 a Nordic price regime shift beat our production forecasts in most zones. Here is exactly how badly, why, and what a persistence baseline teaches about regime days — with our own losses in the tables.
How we score forecasts without fooling ourselves
Walk-forward evaluation, anti-lookahead feature rules, burn-in labeling and why every model generation — including the losing ones — stays on the public board.
State of European Power — June 2026
Negative-price hours, zone price extremes and spreads across ~40 European bidding zones in June 2026 — every figure computed live from the Voltcast production database.
State of European Power — the archive
One roundup per month, back through the full price archive. Each publishes itself automatically on the 2nd of the following month — the page is a query, not an essay.
2025 (12 months)
2024 (12 months)
2023 (12 months)
2022 (12 months)
2021 (12 months)
2020 (12 months)
2019 (12 months)
2018 (12 months)
2017 (12 months)
Zone explainers
What actually drives prices in each bidding zone — generation mix, negative-price record, volatility and our live forecast record, recomputed continuously.