Daily guide · BG · 2026-07-27
What solar actually earned per MWh in Bulgaria this week
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
Bulgarian solar captured an average of 83,09 EUR/MWh this week against a baseload of 110,43 EUR/MWh, giving a capture rate of 0,75. The spread between the best and worst days was wide: solar earned 108,96 EUR/MWh on 21 July but only 56,08 EUR/MWh on 26 July, and the capture rate swung from 0,86 on 24 July down to 0,65 on 23 July.
What stands out is that the highest capture rate did not coincide with the highest peak output. On 24 July, with 2,9 GW of peak solar, the rate reached 0,86, while 23 July delivered 3,4 GW yet the weakest rate of the working week at 0,65. Heavier midday volume tended to depress the price solar could realise, a familiar cannibalisation pattern.
For the reader, the takeaway is that peak gigawatts are a poor proxy for revenue. The 24 July result shows the value in dispatching or shifting output toward hours when the fleet is not saturating the market. Track capture rate, not installed peak, when judging a solar day in Bulgaria.
Solar has a pricing problem it created itself: every panel in BG produces at the same hours, so the more the fleet generates, the lower the price each MWh fetches. The number that captures this is the capture price — the generation-weighted price solar actually earned — and the capture rate, that price as a share of the plain average. Brochures quote the average; revenue arrives at the capture price. This week, measured on real generation and auction data:
83.09
€/MWh solar capture price this week (generation-weighted)
110.43
€/MWh baseload average — the number the brochure quotes
75%
capture rate — what solar keeps of the average price
Day by day
| Day | Capture €/MWh | Baseload €/MWh | Capture rate | Peak solar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 92.63 | 123.77 | 75% | 3.5 GW |
| 2026-07-21 | 108.96 | 138.4 | 79% | 3.5 GW |
| 2026-07-22 | 88.11 | 114.97 | 77% | 2.2 GW |
| 2026-07-23 | 71.64 | 110.8 | 65% | 3.4 GW |
| 2026-07-24 | 107.95 | 125.34 | 86% | 2.9 GW |
| 2026-07-25 | 56.26 | 76.82 | 73% | 1 GW |
| 2026-07-26 | 56.08 | 82.9 | 68% | 1.6 GW |
Capture = Σ(hourly price × solar MW) / Σ(solar MW), from realized generation (ENTSO-E A75) and published auction results. Sunny days push the rate DOWN — that's the cannibalization.
Why this number runs businesses
If you're valuing a PPA, sizing a solar+storage project, or hedging merchant exposure, the capture
rate — not the average price — is your revenue line. One week is weather noise; the trend is the
signal: GET /v1/capture/BG?technology=solar&months=24
returns two years of monthly capture prices and rates, and
POST /v1/ppa/value backcasts a pay-as-produced PPA at your strike.
Both are on the Scale tier (Pro gets a teaser);
battery owners can flip the same effect into revenue — see the
battery arbitrage guide for what the storage side earned this week.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/solar-capture-bg-2026-07-27".
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