Daily guide · IT-SUD · 2026-07-21
What solar actually earned per MWh in Italy South this week
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
Solar in Italy South held its value well this week. The average capture price came in at 144,25 to 166,38 EUR/MWh across most days, with a weekly mean of 151,33 EUR/MWh against a baseload average of 164,11 EUR/MWh. That puts the average capture rate at 0,92, a modest discount for a technology producing into the middle of the day. On 17 July the rate reached 0,97, with capture at 163,62 EUR/MWh close to a baseload of 168,54 EUR/MWh.
The clear outlier was Sunday 19 July, when the rate fell to 0,79 and capture dropped to 119,40 EUR/MWh while baseload sat at 151,43 EUR/MWh. Lower weekend demand typically pushes midday prices down, and that pattern is visible here despite peak solar output holding steady at 2,6 GW, in line with the rest of the week.
The takeaway: capture rates near 0,95 on weekdays show solar is still earning close to baseload, but weekend cannibalisation is the risk to watch. If you are sizing revenue expectations, weight for the Sunday-style dip rather than the midweek highs.
Solar has a pricing problem it created itself: every panel in IT-SUD produces at the same hours, so the more the fleet generates, the lower the price each MWh fetches. The number that captures this is the capture price — the generation-weighted price solar actually earned — and the capture rate, that price as a share of the plain average. Brochures quote the average; revenue arrives at the capture price. This week, measured on real generation and auction data:
151.33
€/MWh solar capture price this week (generation-weighted)
164.11
€/MWh baseload average — the number the brochure quotes
92%
capture rate — what solar keeps of the average price
Day by day
| Day | Capture €/MWh | Baseload €/MWh | Capture rate | Peak solar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | 144.25 | 151.31 | 95% | 2.8 GW |
| 2026-07-15 | 160.07 | 165.9 | 96% | 2.7 GW |
| 2026-07-16 | 155.81 | 171.54 | 91% | 2.7 GW |
| 2026-07-17 | 163.62 | 168.54 | 97% | 2.6 GW |
| 2026-07-18 | 149.75 | 166.59 | 90% | 2.7 GW |
| 2026-07-19 | 119.4 | 151.43 | 79% | 2.6 GW |
| 2026-07-20 | 166.38 | 173.47 | 96% | 2.6 GW |
Capture = Σ(hourly price × solar MW) / Σ(solar MW), from realized generation (ENTSO-E A75) and published auction results. Sunny days push the rate DOWN — that's the cannibalization.
Why this number runs businesses
If you're valuing a PPA, sizing a solar+storage project, or hedging merchant exposure, the capture
rate — not the average price — is your revenue line. One week is weather noise; the trend is the
signal: GET /v1/capture/IT-SUD?technology=solar&months=24
returns two years of monthly capture prices and rates, and
POST /v1/ppa/value backcasts a pay-as-produced PPA at your strike.
Both are on the Scale tier (Pro gets a teaser);
battery owners can flip the same effect into revenue — see the
battery arbitrage guide for what the storage side earned this week.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/solar-capture-it-sud-2026-07-21".
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