Daily guide · CZ · 2026-09-13
The week in temperature at Czechia's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Praha-Ruzyně was defined by a single spike. On 8 September the station reached 31 °C, some 10,4 degrees above the seasonal normal of 20,6 °C and above the 29,9 °C p99 threshold for the day, making it the week's one near-record entry. Either side of that peak the pattern was unremarkable: readings sat within a few degrees of normal, dipping to 18 °C on both 10 and 11 September, roughly 2,2 to 2,4 degrees below their norms.
For the reader, the average anomaly of 1,6 degrees overstates the week's warmth. Strip out 8 September and the remaining days cluster close to normal, alternating mild positive and negative swings. This was a week carried by one outlier rather than a sustained warm regime, which matters when reading demand signals off the weekly mean.
The concrete takeaway is in the forecast. Our volt-temp-4 model puts tomorrow's median tmax at 19,6 °C, with the 19 °C and 20 °C buckets together holding 63 percent of the probability mass. Plan around a cool, near-normal day; the odds of another 24 °C-plus reading are just 1,3 percent.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Praha-Ruzyně (LKPR), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Prague temperature markets.
+1.6°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
31°C
week's highest daily max (2026-09-08)
1
day at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 22° | 21.2° | +0.8° | 31.2° |
| 2026-09-06 | 20° | 21° | -1° | 31° |
| 2026-09-07 | 23° | 20.7° | +2.3° | 30.1° |
| 2026-09-08 | 31° | 20.6° | +10.4° | 29.9° |
| 2026-09-09 | 23° | 20.5° | +2.5° | 29.7° |
| 2026-09-10 | 18° | 20.4° | -2.4° | 29.9° |
| 2026-09-11 | 18° | 20.2° | -2.2° | 29.7° |
| 2026-09-12 | 22° | 19.9° | +2.1° | 29.7° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
19.6° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 18.4° · P90 21.4°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-cz-2026-09-13".
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