Daily guide · DK2 · 2026-07-27
The week in temperature at Denmark East's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
København Kastrup, the settlement station for Denmark East, spent the week running just below its seasonal baseline. The average anomaly landed at -0.9, with daily maxima oscillating in a narrow band between 19 and 23 EUR-irrelevant degrees. The warmest day was 21 July at 23°C, a modest 1.1 above normal, while the coolest readings bookended the week: 19°C on both 19 July (-2.7) and 26 July (-3.2).
What stands out is the absence of extremes. No day came close to the p99 threshold, which held steady around 29.0 to 29.3 all week, and near-record days numbered zero. For a reader watching Danish cooling-linked demand, this points to a subdued, stable temperature signal rather than any heat-driven surprise.
For tomorrow, the volt-temp-2c model centres on a median of 22.8°C, with the interquartile range from 21.3 to 23.6. The single most likely outcome is 23°C at 26.9 percent probability, followed by 24°C at 23.2 percent. The concrete takeaway: expect another day near normal, with roughly half the distribution clustered between 22 and 24°C and little tail risk in either direction.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at København Kastrup (EKCH), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Copenhagen temperature markets.
-0.9°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
23°C
week's highest daily max (2026-07-21)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | 19° | 21.7° | -2.7° | 29.2° |
| 2026-07-20 | 21° | 21.8° | -0.8° | 29.3° |
| 2026-07-21 | 23° | 21.9° | +1.1° | 29.2° |
| 2026-07-22 | 21° | 22° | -1° | 29° |
| 2026-07-23 | 23° | 22.1° | +0.9° | 29° |
| 2026-07-24 | 21° | 22.1° | -1.1° | 29.2° |
| 2026-07-25 | 22° | 22.1° | -0.1° | 29.2° |
| 2026-07-26 | 19° | 22.2° | -3.2° | 29.2° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
22.8° P50 · volt-temp-2c
P10 19.8° · P90 23.7°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the Volt Temp plan, €99/mo. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-dk2-2026-07-27".
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