The week in temperature at Spain's settlement station

Madrid-Barajas ran consistently above seasonal norm this week, with an average anomaly of 2,8 degrees across the eight days. The heat built steadily from the 9th, when tmax reached 37 against a normal of 34,1, peaking on the 13th at 40 degrees, a 6,3-degree anomaly and the week's clear standout. That reading brushed the p99 threshold of 40,6 without crossing it, so no near-record days were logged despite the intensity.

The sharpest feature is the break on the 15th, when tmax fell to 30, some 3,4 degrees below normal and a 10-degree swing from the peak two days earlier. For readers pricing cooling demand, that single-day collapse matters: the week was not a uniform heat plateau but a spike followed by a brief, pronounced dip before partial recovery to 35 on the 16th.

The concrete takeaway is tomorrow's outlook. Our volt-temp-4 model centres on a p50 of 38,4 degrees, with the 38 bucket carrying 45,7 percent probability and the 39 bucket 37,0 percent. Plan around high-30s heat returning, with little chance of touching the 40,6 record threshold.