Daily guide · FI · 2026-08-11
The week in temperature at Finland's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
This week at Helsinki-Vantaa was quiet and slightly below par. Daytime highs settled around normal, with an average anomaly of -0.3 across the eight days. The station opened three consecutive days at 21 degrees, each running roughly 1,3 to 1,6 degrees under the seasonal normal, before a single warm interruption on 6 August, when the high reached 25 degrees at an anomaly of 2,8. No day came close to the p99 threshold, which sat between 29,5 and 31 degrees through the week, so there were zero near-record days.
For the reader, the read is one of stability rather than extremes. The warmest day did not test any records, and the swing back to 20 degrees on 8 August confirms that this was ordinary summer variability, not a heat signal. Late-week values recovered toward normal, ending at 23 degrees on 10 August.
The concrete takeaway is in tomorrow's forecast: the volt-temp-4 model centres the high at 18,2 degrees (p50), with 40 percent probability on the 18-degree bucket and a tight p05-p95 range of 17,2 to 19,4. Plan for a cool, unremarkable day.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Helsinki-Vantaa (EFHK), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Helsinki temperature markets.
-0.3°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
25°C
week's highest daily max (2026-08-06)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 21° | 22.6° | -1.6° | 31° |
| 2026-08-04 | 21° | 22.5° | -1.5° | 31° |
| 2026-08-05 | 21° | 22.3° | -1.3° | 30.3° |
| 2026-08-06 | 25° | 22.2° | +2.8° | 30.1° |
| 2026-08-07 | 22° | 22° | 0° | 29.9° |
| 2026-08-08 | 20° | 22° | -2° | 29.7° |
| 2026-08-09 | 22° | 21.9° | +0.1° | 29.6° |
| 2026-08-10 | 23° | 21.8° | +1.2° | 29.5° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
18.2° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 17.4° · P90 18.9°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-fi-2026-08-11".
The monthly European power roundup
Negative-price records, the biggest spreads, which zones were hardest to forecast — every number computed from our production data, on the 2nd of each month. No filler, unsubscribe anytime.