Daily guide · GB · 2026-07-24
The week in temperature at Great Britain's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at London City Airport ran warm on balance, with an average anomaly of 1.6 degrees above normal. The pattern was more oscillation than sustained heat: it opened at 27 degrees on 16 and 17 July, some 4.5 degrees above the seasonal normal of 22.5, before a cooler mid-week dip to 21 degrees on 18 and 19 July, roughly 1.6 degrees below normal. The back half of the week rebuilt, closing at 26 degrees on 23 July.
For readers, the notable point is what did not happen. Despite the warm start, no day came close to the p99 threshold, which sat between 31.7 and 32.7 degrees across the week. There were zero near-record days. This was a warm week comfortably within the normal envelope, not an extreme event.
The concrete takeaway is in tomorrow's outlook. The volt-temp-2c model places the median at 27.5 degrees, with the 28-degree bucket carrying the highest single probability at 0.25. Plan around a warm reading near 28 degrees, but note the p05 of 19.3 leaves a modest cool tail.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at London City Airport (EGLC), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing London temperature markets.
+1.6°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
27°C
week's highest daily max (2026-07-16)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 27° | 22.5° | +4.5° | 31.7° |
| 2026-07-17 | 27° | 22.5° | +4.5° | 31.7° |
| 2026-07-18 | 21° | 22.6° | -1.6° | 32° |
| 2026-07-19 | 21° | 22.6° | -1.6° | 32° |
| 2026-07-20 | 25° | 22.7° | +2.3° | 32.7° |
| 2026-07-21 | 22° | 22.8° | -0.8° | 32.7° |
| 2026-07-22 | 25° | 22.9° | +2.1° | 32.7° |
| 2026-07-23 | 26° | 22.9° | +3.1° | 32.7° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
27.5° P50 · volt-temp-2c
P10 21.4° · P90 29.3°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the Volt Temp plan, €99/mo. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-gb-2026-07-24".
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