Daily guide · HR · 2026-08-29
The week in temperature at Croatia's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Zagreb Pleso built steadily toward heat. After a cool interruption on 22 August, when tmax reached 23 against a 25.9 normal for an anomaly of -2.9, temperatures climbed with few pauses. The run closed with 32 on 26 August, 35 on 27 August, and 37 on 28 August, the hottest day of the week at 11.7 above the 25.3 normal. Three days finished near record territory, and the week-average anomaly settled at 4.8.
For the reader, the standout is how far the back half of the week pushed past the p99 line. The station's p99 sat between 31 and 31.8 across these days, yet 27 and 28 August cleared it by four and six degrees respectively. That is not marginal warmth; it is a station running well beyond its usual seasonal ceiling, with the demand-side implications that follow for cooling load.
The concrete takeaway is in tomorrow's distribution. Volt-temp-4 places the median at 31.6, with the 31 and 32 buckets together carrying roughly 71 percent of the probability. Plan around low-thirties heat, and treat a drop below 30 as the tail it is.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Zagreb Pleso (LDZA), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Zagreb temperature markets.
+4.8°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
37°C
week's highest daily max (2026-08-28)
3
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | 31° | 26.3° | +4.7° | 31.7° |
| 2026-08-22 | 23° | 25.9° | -2.9° | 31.7° |
| 2026-08-23 | 28° | 25.8° | +2.2° | 31.7° |
| 2026-08-24 | 31° | 25.8° | +5.2° | 31.8° |
| 2026-08-25 | 27° | 25.6° | +1.4° | 31.2° |
| 2026-08-26 | 32° | 25.3° | +6.7° | 31.2° |
| 2026-08-27 | 35° | 25.5° | +9.5° | 31.2° |
| 2026-08-28 | 37° | 25.3° | +11.7° | 31° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
31.6° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 30.4° · P90 33°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-hr-2026-08-29".
The monthly European power roundup
Negative-price records, the biggest spreads, which zones were hardest to forecast — every number computed from our production data, on the 2nd of each month. No filler, unsubscribe anytime.