Daily guide · IE-SEM · 2026-08-23
The week in temperature at Ireland (SEM)'s settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Dublin Airport split cleanly into two halves. Through 19 August, maximum temperatures ran at or above normal, peaking at 21°C on 17 August, an anomaly of 2.2°C and the warmest reading of the period. From 20 August onward the pattern reversed sharply, with tmax falling to 16°C on both 20 and 22 August, anomalies of -2.6°C and -2.5°C respectively. The net effect was a week-average anomaly of just -0.2°C, close to seasonal norm despite the day-to-day swings.
For the reader, that near-neutral average masks the real story: cooling demand signals were front-loaded, then gave way to below-normal conditions in the final three days. No day came close to the p99 threshold, which drifted down from 25.4°C to 24°C across the week, so there was no near-record heat to price in.
The concrete takeaway is tomorrow's outlook. Our volt-temp-4 model centres on a p50 of 20.4°C, with the 20°C and 21°C buckets carrying almost all the probability mass at 0.40 and 0.417. Plan around a return toward the warmer half of the week.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Dublin Airport (EIDW), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Dublin temperature markets.
-0.2°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
21°C
week's highest daily max (2026-08-17)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | 20° | 19° | +1° | 25.4° |
| 2026-08-16 | 19° | 18.9° | +0.1° | 25.4° |
| 2026-08-17 | 21° | 18.8° | +2.2° | 25.4° |
| 2026-08-18 | 19° | 18.8° | +0.2° | 24.9° |
| 2026-08-19 | 20° | 18.7° | +1.3° | 24.7° |
| 2026-08-20 | 16° | 18.6° | -2.6° | 24.6° |
| 2026-08-21 | 17° | 18.6° | -1.6° | 24.5° |
| 2026-08-22 | 16° | 18.5° | -2.5° | 24° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
20.4° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 19.4° · P90 21.2°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-ie-sem-2026-08-23".
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