Daily guide · IT-CSUD · 2026-08-26
The week in temperature at Italy Centre-South's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Milano Linate reads as warm at the front, unremarkable at the back. It opened above normal, peaking on 19 August at 34 degrees against a 30,1 normal, an anomaly of 3,9. That was the hottest day of the eight, yet it stayed a clear three degrees short of the 37 p99 threshold. No day this week qualified as near-record.
The standout is the swing on 21 August, when tmax fell to 24 degrees, 5,9 below normal, breaking the early-week heat before temperatures settled back toward seasonal values. From 22 to 25 August anomalies stayed within a narrow band, between -0,7 and 1,5, leaving the eight-day average anomaly at just 0,2. For a reader tracking Centre-South cooling demand, that means the week netted out close to normal despite the visible peaks and the mid-week drop.
For tomorrow, the volt-temp-4 model centres on 31,6 degrees at the median, with the 32-degree bucket most likely at 0,5167 and the 31-degree bucket next at 0,275. The concrete takeaway: expect a return to modestly above-normal warmth, with little probability above 33 degrees.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Milano Linate (LIML), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Milan temperature markets.
+0.2°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
34°C
week's highest daily max (2026-08-19)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | 32° | 30.1° | +1.9° | 37° |
| 2026-08-19 | 34° | 30.1° | +3.9° | 37° |
| 2026-08-20 | 31° | 30° | +1° | 36.6° |
| 2026-08-21 | 24° | 29.9° | -5.9° | 36.1° |
| 2026-08-22 | 30° | 29.8° | +0.2° | 36° |
| 2026-08-23 | 29° | 29.7° | -0.7° | 36° |
| 2026-08-24 | 31° | 29.5° | +1.5° | 36° |
| 2026-08-25 | 29° | 29.3° | -0.3° | 36° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
31.6° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 30.4° · P90 32.4°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-it-csud-2026-08-26".
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