Daily guide · IT-SARD · 2026-07-18
The week in temperature at Italy Sardinia's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The settlement station recorded temperatures consistently above seasonal normal this week, with an average anomaly of 3.2 degrees. Every day from 10 to 17 July ran warmer than the reference climatology, which held between 30 and 30.4. The warmest reading came on 14 July at 35, an anomaly of 4.8 above the normal of 30.2, though it stayed below the 36 p99 threshold for that day. No day this week qualified as near-record.
For the reader, the takeaway is a warm but not extreme week: heat sat persistently above normal without breaching the p99 ceiling on any single day. The mild cooling toward the end of the run, with 17 July at 32 and an anomaly of just 1.6, suggests the peak has passed for now.
Looking to tomorrow, the volt-temp-1 model centres on a median of 32.7, with the interquartile range spanning 32.1 to 33.4. The bucket distribution places most weight on 33 (0.4083) and 32 (0.3673), leaving only 0.0219 probability at 35 and negligible weight at or above 36. Expect another warm day near normal, not a record challenge.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Milano Linate (LIML), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Milan temperature markets.
+3.2°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
35°C
week's highest daily max (2026-07-14)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 34° | 30° | +4° | 35.1° |
| 2026-07-11 | 34° | 30° | +4° | 35.1° |
| 2026-07-12 | 33° | 30.1° | +2.9° | 35.1° |
| 2026-07-13 | 33° | 30.2° | +2.8° | 35.3° |
| 2026-07-14 | 35° | 30.2° | +4.8° | 36° |
| 2026-07-15 | 33° | 30.3° | +2.7° | 36° |
| 2026-07-16 | 33° | 30.4° | +2.6° | 36° |
| 2026-07-17 | 32° | 30.4° | +1.6° | 36° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
32.7° P50 · volt-temp-1
P10 31.6° · P90 33.6°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the Volt Temp plan, €99/mo. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-it-sard-2026-07-18".
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