Daily guide · LT · 2026-09-10
The week in temperature at Lithuania's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Vilnius Airport held to a narrow band before breaking higher at the close. From 2 September through 8 September, daily maxima stayed between 17 and 21 EUR-free degrees, clustering tightly around 18 degrees on four of those days. The standout is 9 September, when tmax reached 27 degrees, some six degrees above anything else recorded in the window and the clear peak of the station-week.
For the reader, the message is one of stability interrupted. Most of the week offered little temperature signal to trade around, with readings that moved by no more than a degree or two day to day. The late spike is the only event that would meaningfully shift cooling-related demand assumptions, and it sits alone rather than as part of a sustained warm run.
The concrete takeaway is in tomorrow's distribution: the volt-temp-4 model centres on a p50 of 18,3 degrees, with the 18 and 19 buckets together carrying about 75 percent of the probability. Plan for a return to the week's baseline, not a repeat of the 27-degree peak.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Vilnius Airport (EYVI), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Vilnius temperature markets.
°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
27°C
week's highest daily max (2026-09-09)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 19° | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-03 | 20° | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 18° | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | 17° | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | 18° | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 18° | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 21° | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 27° | — | — | — |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
18.3° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 17.4° · P90 19.3°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-lt-2026-09-10".
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