Daily guide · MK · 2026-07-21
The week in temperature at North Macedonia's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Skopje Airport (LWSK) settled into a persistent warm regime. After a cool opening on 13 July, when the 31°C maximum ran 0.9 below the 31.9°C normal, temperatures climbed steadily and stayed elevated. From 15 July onward every day exceeded its seasonal normal by at least 3.6°C, and the week-average anomaly reached 3.4°C. The hottest day was 18 July at 38°C, some 5.6°C above the 32.4°C normal, matched in warmth by 19 July.
For readers, the notable point is that warmth this consistent did not translate into record territory. No day this week breached its p99 threshold, which sat between 40.3 and 41.9°C. The peak of 38°C on 18 July stayed well below the 41.3°C p99 for that date. This was a sustained heat episode, not an extreme one.
The concrete takeaway sits in tomorrow's forecast, which points sharply lower. The volt-temp-2 median is 26.2°C, with the 26°C bucket carrying 0.5776 probability. Expect a marked break from the week's peaks, with values above 30°C effectively negligible at 0.0006.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Skopje Airport (LWSK), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Skopje temperature markets.
+3.4°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
38°C
week's highest daily max (2026-07-18)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 31° | 31.9° | -0.9° | 40.5° |
| 2026-07-14 | 33° | 32° | +1° | 40.3° |
| 2026-07-15 | 36° | 32.1° | +3.9° | 40.3° |
| 2026-07-16 | 37° | 32.2° | +4.8° | 40.5° |
| 2026-07-17 | 36° | 32.3° | +3.7° | 40.6° |
| 2026-07-18 | 38° | 32.4° | +5.6° | 41.3° |
| 2026-07-19 | 38° | 32.4° | +5.6° | 41.9° |
| 2026-07-20 | 36° | 32.4° | +3.6° | 41.9° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
26.2° P50 · volt-temp-2
P10 25.9° · P90 27.6°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the Volt Temp plan, €99/mo. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-mk-2026-07-21".
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