Daily guide · NL · 2026-08-14
The week in temperature at Netherlands's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Amsterdam Schiphol split cleanly into two halves. It opened below the seasonal mark, with 6 and 7 August running 1,8 and 0,7 degrees under normal at 21 and 22 degrees. From there the trend turned firmly warm: 9 August reached 30 degrees, 7,4 above the norm of 22,6, and the week closed with 33 degrees on 13 August, an anomaly of 10,6 degrees. The week averaged 2,9 degrees above normal, with one near-record day.
For the reader, the signal is not the average but the swing. A run from mild readings to a single day 10,6 degrees above normal is the kind of step that moves cooling demand and short-dated load expectations faster than the weekly mean suggests. Notably, even the 33-degree peak stayed below the 32,2 p99 threshold on paper only by a margin — record territory remained close but unbreached.
The concrete takeaway is for tomorrow: our volt-temp-4 model centres on 26,2 degrees, with the 25-to-27 range carrying most of the weight and only a 1,38 percent chance of 31 or above. Plan around the high twenties, not the extremes.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Amsterdam Schiphol (EHAM), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Amsterdam temperature markets.
+2.9°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
33°C
week's highest daily max (2026-08-13)
1
day at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 21° | 22.8° | -1.8° | 32.8° |
| 2026-08-07 | 22° | 22.7° | -0.7° | 32.8° |
| 2026-08-08 | 25° | 22.7° | +2.3° | 32.8° |
| 2026-08-09 | 30° | 22.6° | +7.4° | 32.9° |
| 2026-08-10 | 23° | 22.5° | +0.5° | 32.9° |
| 2026-08-11 | 22° | 22.5° | -0.5° | 32.5° |
| 2026-08-12 | 28° | 22.5° | +5.5° | 32.1° |
| 2026-08-13 | 33° | 22.4° | +10.6° | 32.2° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
26.2° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 25° · P90 28°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-nl-2026-08-14".
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