Daily guide · NO4 · 2026-09-04
The week in temperature at Norway Tromsø's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week opened warm and settled quickly. On 27 August the station reached 24 degrees against a normal of 18.2, an anomaly of 5.8 degrees and the clear standout of the eight days. After that single spike, temperatures dropped back to 17 degrees on 28 August, slightly below the 18-degree normal, before drifting through a run of small positive anomalies for the remainder of the period.
The rest of the week reads as unremarkable in the best sense. Daily anomalies stayed between minus 1 and plus 2.5 degrees from 28 August onward, and the week averaged 1.5 degrees above normal. No day came close to the p99 threshold, which sat between 24.2 and 26.2 degrees across the period, so there were no near-record days to flag.
For tomorrow, the volt-temp-4 model centres on 16.2 degrees at the median, with a plausible range from 14 degrees at the p05 to 18 at the p95. The bucket weights cluster around 15 and 17 degrees, together holding more than 60 percent of the probability. The takeaway: expect a cool, near-normal day with little upside risk.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Oslo Gardermoen (ENGM), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Oslo temperature markets.
+1.5°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
24°C
week's highest daily max (2026-08-27)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 24° | 18.2° | +5.8° | 26.2° |
| 2026-08-28 | 17° | 18° | -1° | 25.9° |
| 2026-08-29 | 18° | 17.9° | +0.1° | 25.4° |
| 2026-08-30 | 19° | 17.7° | +1.3° | 25° |
| 2026-08-31 | 20° | 17.5° | +2.5° | 25° |
| 2026-09-01 | 18° | 17.4° | +0.6° | 25° |
| 2026-09-02 | 19° | 17.3° | +1.7° | 25° |
| 2026-09-03 | 18° | 17.2° | +0.8° | 24.2° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
16.2° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 14.8° · P90 17.8°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-no4-2026-09-04".
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