Daily guide · NO5 · 2026-08-08
The week in temperature at Norway Bergen's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
Note first a data caveat: this week's guide is headed for Norway Bergen, but the station block resolves to Oslo Gardermoen (ENGM). The numbers below refer to that record.
The week ran cool, with an average anomaly of -1,2 degrees. Most days sat close to normal, but two clear dips stand out: 5 August at 17 against a 20,9 normal, an anomaly of -3,9, and 7 August also at 17, an anomaly of -3,6. The only warm day was 4 August at 22 versus a 21 normal, a modest +1. No day came near its p99 threshold, which ran from 30 early in the week down to 28, so there were zero near-record days despite it being high summer.
For the reader, this is a settled, slightly below-normal picture rather than a heat story. The volt-temp-4 model puts tomorrow's median at 19,7, with the 20 bucket most likely at 37,5 percent and the 19 bucket at 26,7 percent. The concrete takeaway: expect another cool day near 20, with little chance above 22 (roughly 4 percent combined for 22 and above).
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Oslo Gardermoen (ENGM), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Oslo temperature markets.
-1.2°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
22°C
week's highest daily max (2026-08-04)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 21° | 21.5° | -0.5° | 30° |
| 2026-08-01 | 20° | 21.4° | -1.4° | 29.8° |
| 2026-08-02 | 21° | 21.2° | -0.2° | 29.8° |
| 2026-08-03 | 21° | 21.1° | -0.1° | 29° |
| 2026-08-04 | 22° | 21° | +1° | 28.4° |
| 2026-08-05 | 17° | 20.9° | -3.9° | 28° |
| 2026-08-06 | 20° | 20.8° | -0.8° | 28° |
| 2026-08-07 | 17° | 20.6° | -3.6° | 28° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
19.7° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 18.3° · P90 20.7°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-no5-2026-08-08".
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