Daily guide · PT · 2026-07-30
The week in temperature at Portugal's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Lisboa Humberto Delgado split cleanly into two halves. The first four days ran at or below the seasonal normal of around 28.8°C, with 24 and 25 July reaching only 25°C, some 3.7 and 3.6 degrees below normal. From 26 July the pattern reversed sharply: 27 July peaked at 36°C, an anomaly of 7.3 degrees, followed by 34°C and 31°C. Across the eight days the average anomaly was a modest 0.8 degrees, which understates how uneven the distribution actually was.
For the reader, the takeaway is that a benign weekly mean can hide a demand-relevant heat spike. Despite the 36°C reading, no day this week was classed as near-record, staying below the P99 threshold of 40°C. The heat was intense but not exceptional for the station.
Looking to tomorrow, the volt-temp-3 model centres on 29.9°C at the median, with the 30°C bucket carrying the highest probability at 0.5159 and the P95 at 30.6°C. Plan for a return toward normal rather than a continuation of the late-week peak.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Lisboa Humberto Delgado (LPPT), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Lisbon temperature markets.
+0.8°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
36°C
week's highest daily max (2026-07-27)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 29° | 28.8° | +0.2° | 39° |
| 2026-07-23 | 28° | 28.8° | -0.8° | 39° |
| 2026-07-24 | 25° | 28.7° | -3.7° | 39.7° |
| 2026-07-25 | 25° | 28.6° | -3.6° | 39.7° |
| 2026-07-26 | 29° | 28.6° | +0.4° | 39.7° |
| 2026-07-27 | 36° | 28.7° | +7.3° | 40° |
| 2026-07-28 | 34° | 28.9° | +5.1° | 40° |
| 2026-07-29 | 31° | 29.2° | +1.8° | 40° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
29.9° P50 · volt-temp-3
P10 28.2° · P90 30.4°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the Volt Temp plan, €99/mo. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-pt-2026-07-30".
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