Daily guide · RO · 2026-09-01
The week in temperature at Romania's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Bucharest Otopeni split cleanly into two halves. It opened hot, with 32 degrees on 24 August and a peak of 34 on 25 August, the latter running 4,1 degrees above the seasonal normal of 29,9. A cooler spell then took hold from 26 to 29 August, bottoming at 26 degrees on 28 August, some 3,2 degrees below normal, before temperatures climbed back to 30 and 32 degrees to close the period.
Despite that swing, the week netted out close to seasonal, with an average anomaly of just 0,4 degrees. No day approached the p99 threshold of roughly 38 degrees, and near-record days numbered zero. For readers, the signal is one of volatility around a broadly normal mean rather than a sustained heat event, which limits the case for persistent demand-driven price pressure.
For tomorrow, the volt-temp-4 model centres on 31,1 degrees at the median, with the 31-degree bucket carrying a 58,3 percent probability and the 32-degree bucket 22,0 percent. The concrete takeaway: plan around 31 degrees, treating anything below 30 or above 32 as a low-probability tail.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at București Otopeni (LROP), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Bucharest temperature markets.
+0.4°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
34°C
week's highest daily max (2026-08-25)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 32° | 30° | +2° | 38° |
| 2026-08-25 | 34° | 29.9° | +4.1° | 38° |
| 2026-08-26 | 28° | 29.7° | -1.7° | 38° |
| 2026-08-27 | 27° | 29.5° | -2.5° | 38° |
| 2026-08-28 | 26° | 29.2° | -3.2° | 38.1° |
| 2026-08-29 | 28° | 28.9° | -0.9° | 38.1° |
| 2026-08-30 | 30° | 28.6° | +1.4° | 38° |
| 2026-08-31 | 32° | 28.2° | +3.8° | 38° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
31.1° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 30.2° · P90 32°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the station-temperature capability included in Scale. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-ro-2026-09-01".
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