Daily guide · RS · 2026-08-05
The week in temperature at Serbia's settlement station
All numbers computed from the week's published auction results at publication and frozen — this article is an honest snapshot, not a page that rewrites itself. Reproduce via the API.
The week at Belgrade Nikola Tesla (LYBE) has been one of steady, intensifying heat. Maximums climbed from 31 degrees on 28 July, a modest 1,2 above the seasonal normal, to 37 degrees on 4 August, a 7,3 anomaly. From 31 July onward the station held at or above 36 degrees each day, and the week-average anomaly settled at 5,3 above normal. Notably, none of these days breached the local p99 threshold, which sat between 38,3 and 38,8 across the week: hot and persistent, but not record-testing.
For the reader, the signal is the durability rather than the peak. A run of six consecutive days 6 or more degrees above normal sustains cooling demand and keeps the load side firm without the tail risk that a near-record day would imply.
Tomorrow, the volt-temp-4 model centres on 37,5 degrees, with the median flanked tightly by a p05 of 35,6 and a p95 of 37,9. The bucket distribution puts most weight on 38 degrees (0,565) and 37 degrees (0,313). The takeaway: plan for another day near 37 to 38 degrees, still short of the p99.
Daily temperature markets don't settle on "the weather" — they settle on the finalized daily maximum at Beograd Nikola Tesla (LYBE), one specific gauge. Here's what that gauge actually did this week, against the 35-year normal for each calendar day — ground truth for anyone analyzing Belgrade temperature markets.
+5.3°C
average anomaly vs the 35-year day normal this week
37°C
week's highest daily max (2026-08-04)
0
days at or above the day-of-year P99
The week, day by day
| Day | Observed Tmax | 35y normal | Anomaly | Day P99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 31° | 29.8° | +1.2° | 38.3° |
| 2026-07-29 | 33° | 29.7° | +3.3° | 38.4° |
| 2026-07-30 | 35° | 29.7° | +5.3° | 38.8° |
| 2026-07-31 | 36° | 29.6° | +6.4° | 38.8° |
| 2026-08-01 | 36° | 29.5° | +6.5° | 38.4° |
| 2026-08-02 | 36° | 29.6° | +6.4° | 38.4° |
| 2026-08-03 | 36° | 29.7° | +6.3° | 38.4° |
| 2026-08-04 | 37° | 29.7° | +7.3° | 38.4° |
Observed values from METAR (the same ASOS feed settlement pages display); normals and P99 from NOAA ISD, 15-day windowed, leap-stable day mapping.
Tomorrow's distribution
37.5° P50 · volt-temp-4
P10 36.8° · P90 37.8°
The full product behind this page: per-station probability distributions in the exact 1°C buckets markets trade, D+1 to D+5, verified against METAR daily — plus the resolution-station registry (gauges change; Paris did in April 2026) and CME degree-day settle projections. That's the Volt Temp plan, €99/mo. Analytics only — never wagering advice.
Method & citation. Prices are hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (native 15-minute periods averaged; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Wholesale-price component only — grid fees and taxes come on top and vary by supplier. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/guides/station-week-rs-2026-08-05".
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