Volt Normals · VN-1
Climatology that admits the trend
The documented, persistent mispricing in weather markets is stale climatology: 10- and 30-year normals lag the warming trend — and the warm tails are fattening faster than the means. Volt Normals fit an exact quantile regression on year per station, per day-of-year, per quantile, and evaluate it at this year. Free to cite with attribution ("Volt Normals (Voltcast)" + link).
Today — trend-adjusted vs stale, °C
Full-year CSV, all stations →| Station | Tmax normal (VN-1) | Stale climatology | Stale bias | Q90 today | Trend Q50 | Trend Q90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBBR Brussels Airport | 22.7 | 21.0 | +1.7 | 29.5 | +1.67°C/dec | +1.92°C/dec |
| EDDL Düsseldorf Flughafen | 24.4 | 22.2 | +2.2 | 30.5 | +2.86°C/dec | +1.82°C/dec |
| EDDM München Flughafen | 23.3 | 21.1 | +2.2 | 28.4 | +1.11°C/dec | +1.00°C/dec |
| EETN Tallinn Lennart Meri | 19.1 | 18.4 | +0.7 | 26.3 | +0.91°C/dec | +4.17°C/dec |
| EFHK Helsinki-Vantaa | 19.1 | 17.8 | +1.3 | 24.5 | +0.90°C/dec | +2.40°C/dec |
| EGLC London City Airport | 21.7 | 20.2 | +1.5 | 28.3 | +1.82°C/dec | +3.33°C/dec |
| EGLL London Heathrow | 21.2 | 21.3 | -0.1 | 29.7 | +0.33°C/dec | +3.38°C/dec |
| EHAM Amsterdam Schiphol | 22.2 | 20.3 | +1.9 | 28.8 | +1.82°C/dec | +3.82°C/dec |
| EIDW Dublin Airport | 18.2 | 17.8 | +0.4 | 21.8 | +0.90°C/dec | +0.88°C/dec |
| EKBI Billund Lufthavn | 21.2 | 18.9 | +2.3 | 26.1 | +2.17°C/dec | +3.70°C/dec |
| EKCH København Kastrup | 21.2 | 19.2 | +2.0 | 24.7 | +1.75°C/dec | +2.75°C/dec |
| ENBR Bergen Flesland | 18.2 | 16.1 | +2.1 | 21.9 | +2.00°C/dec | +2.88°C/dec |
| ENGM Oslo Gardermoen | 18.1 | 17.2 | +0.9 | 23.4 | +0.42°C/dec | +2.25°C/dec |
| ENTC Tromsø Langnes | 13.0 | 12.5 | +0.5 | 19.4 | +0.18°C/dec | +2.00°C/dec |
| ENVA Trondheim Værnes | 18.1 | 16.6 | +1.5 | 23.3 | +1.29°C/dec | +1.58°C/dec |
| ENZV Stavanger Sola | 18.8 | 17.2 | +1.6 | 23.2 | +1.57°C/dec | +3.00°C/dec |
| EPWA Warszawa-Okecie | 24.8 | 21.7 | +3.1 | 31.7 | +2.78°C/dec | +3.71°C/dec |
| ESMS Malmö Sturup | 21.4 | 18.8 | +2.6 | 26.5 | +2.09°C/dec | +4.00°C/dec |
| ESSA Stockholm-Arlanda | 17.8 | 18.0 | -0.2 | 23.1 | -0.50°C/dec | +0.55°C/dec |
| EVRA Rīga Airport | 21.4 | 16.3 | +5.1 | 26.8 | +2.18°C/dec | +4.20°C/dec |
| LBSF Sofia Airport | 27.8 | 26.3 | +1.5 | 32.0 | -0.77°C/dec | 0.00°C/dec |
| LDZA Zagreb Pleso | 26.5 | 23.8 | +2.7 | 33.4 | +0.50°C/dec | +2.00°C/dec |
| LEMD Madrid-Barajas | 29.6 | 30.6 | -1.0 | 33.2 | -1.33°C/dec | -1.88°C/dec |
| LFPB Paris-Le Bourget | 24.1 | 23.6 | +0.5 | 30.9 | +1.27°C/dec | +1.78°C/dec |
| LFPO Paris-Orly | 24.1 | 23.6 | +0.5 | 32.0 | +1.23°C/dec | +2.82°C/dec |
| LGAV Athens Eleftherios Venizelos | 30.6 | 30.1 | +0.5 | 34.0 | -0.14°C/dec | +0.08°C/dec |
| LHBP Budapest Liszt Ferenc | 27.6 | 25.1 | +2.5 | 34.5 | +1.25°C/dec | +2.31°C/dec |
| LIML Milano Linate | 28.0 | 27.4 | +0.6 | 32.0 | 0.00°C/dec | +1.00°C/dec |
| LIRF Roma Fiumicino | 29.1 | 27.9 | +1.2 | 32.5 | +1.00°C/dec | +1.82°C/dec |
| LJLJ Ljubljana Brnik | 26.4 | 25.2 | +1.2 | 31.3 | +1.33°C/dec | +1.38°C/dec |
| LKPR Praha-Ruzyně | 22.9 | 21.5 | +1.4 | 30.5 | +1.29°C/dec | +2.54°C/dec |
| LOWW Wien-Schwechat | 25.7 | 23.0 | +2.7 | 32.5 | +1.25°C/dec | +2.60°C/dec |
| LPPT Lisboa Humberto Delgado | 25.5 | 27.9 | -2.4 | 30.5 | -1.67°C/dec | -2.50°C/dec |
| LROP București Otopeni | 30.3 | 27.3 | +3.0 | 35.8 | +1.45°C/dec | +3.18°C/dec |
| LSZH Zürich Kloten | 23.6 | 21.9 | +1.7 | 29.3 | +0.75°C/dec | +0.67°C/dec |
| LTAC Ankara Esenboga | 30.5 | 27.7 | +2.8 | 34.3 | +2.31°C/dec | +1.11°C/dec |
| LTFM Istanbul Airport | 27.1 | 29.3 | -2.2 | 32.8 | -2.78°C/dec | +0.33°C/dec |
| LWSK Skopje Airport | 31.2 | 29.2 | +2.0 | 36.3 | +0.83°C/dec | +1.54°C/dec |
| LYBE Beograd Nikola Tesla | 29.6 | 26.6 | +3.0 | 34.2 | +2.11°C/dec | +0.83°C/dec |
| LYPG Podgorica Airport | 31.2 | 30.5 | +0.7 | 35.3 | +0.80°C/dec | +1.00°C/dec |
| LZIB Bratislava M. R. Štefánik | 26.1 | 24.4 | +1.7 | 32.2 | +0.79°C/dec | +1.62°C/dec |
| UUEE Moscow Sheremetyevo | 22.8 | 18.7 | +4.1 | 29.0 | +4.17°C/dec | +5.00°C/dec |
"Stale bias" = VN-1 minus the plain multi-decade mean for today's calendar day — the number a stale-normals model misprices by. An amber Q90 trend above the Q50 trend is the tail fattening faster than the mean.
Methodology — VN-1
- Window: the last 15 completed years of finalized daily Tmax/Tmin (ISD + METAR), ±7-day day-of-year window (15-day centred, leap-stable).
- Model: exact linear quantile regression (pinball loss, no regularization) of temperature on year — separately for q10/q50/q90 of Tmax and Tmin, so each quantile carries its own trend.
- Output: the fit evaluated at the current year, plus trend slopes in °C/decade. Rows carry sample sizes; method changes version (VN-2, …) and are never applied silently.
- Where it works: our degree-day settle projections use VN-1 beyond the ensemble horizon — the projection inherits the trend instead of a stale mean.
Use it
curl "https://voltcast.com/api/v1/normals" # today, all stations curl "https://voltcast.com/api/v1/normals/LFPB" # full-year curve, Paris-Le Bourget
Keyless and CORS-open. The station-exact forecast distributions, settle projections and degree-day trackers built on top are included in Scale and previewed on the Desk demo.