Weekly pulse · 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-23

European Power Pulse — week 2026-W34

Every figure computed from published auction results and our production accuracy tables at publication, then frozen — an honest snapshot. Reproduce via the API.

European average

€326.25/MWh

+11.3 vs prior week

Negative-price hours

200.3

across 48 zones

Forecast scoreboard

42/46 zones beat baseline

day-ahead, live production runs · full scorecard

European day-ahead prices firmed in week 2026-W34, with the EU average across 48 zones rising to 326.25 EUR/MWh from 314.95 the prior week. The direction was broadly upward, though the aggregate figure continues to be distorted by a handful of extreme outliers rather than by any uniform shift across the continent.

The Nordics again anchored the low end. NO4 was the cheapest zone at 37.77, followed by SE1 at 63.03 and SE2 at 69.36, all three sharing a 1.51 floor but also all rising week-on-week, by 32.5, 34.88 and 41.85 respectively. At the top, Ukraine averaged 6180.17 despite easing by 620.92, while Turkey climbed 363.65 to 3133.54. Within the coupled market, IT-SICI was the priciest at 199.97.

The largest movers were the same extremes, UA and TR, alongside SE4, which gained 57.71 to reach 120.72. Negative pricing remained concentrated in the north-west: France logged 34 negative hours, Germany-Luxembourg 30, Poland 28.5, the Netherlands 27 and Belgium 26.5. Poland recorded the deepest single print at minus 45. Across all zones, negative hours totalled 200.3.

On our own scoreboard, we scored 46 zones and beat the baseline in 42, with average improvement of 13.8 percent; strong results in NO4, NL and ME were offset by IE-SEM and NO5, where our error exceeded baseline. Consistent with our guarantee, the losing zones are free for the week.

Cheapest zones

NO4 €37.77 +32.5 WoW
SE1 €63.03 +34.88 WoW
SE2 €69.36 +41.85 WoW

Priciest zones

UA €6,180.17 -620.92 WoW
TR €3,133.54 +363.65 WoW
IT-SICI €199.97 +18.48 WoW

Biggest week-over-week moves

UA -620.92 €/MWh now €6,180.17
TR +363.65 €/MWh now €3,133.54
SE4 +57.71 €/MWh now €120.72

Negative-price hours by zone

FR 34 h weekly low €-4.90
DE-LU 30 h weekly low €-6.21
PL 28.5 h weekly low €-45.00
NL 27 h weekly low €-5.00
BE 26.5 h weekly low €-5.04
Live scorecard → All research → Start with Home →

Method & citation. Zone averages are means of published day-ahead auction results over the stated week (native 15-minute periods; ENTSO-E/SMARD, attributed). Forecast scoreboard: live production runs vs the naive-persistence baseline on the same days, 24h horizon. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com/research/european-power-pulse-2026-w34".

The monthly European power roundup

Negative-price records, the biggest spreads, which zones were hardest to forecast — every number computed from our production data, on the 2nd of each month. No filler, unsubscribe anytime.