Citable answer · live evidence
Voltcast forecast versus persistence, by bidding zone
The current 24-hour forecast comparison, including zones where Voltcast loses to the free persistence baseline.
Short answer
The current board has 44 zones where Voltcast’s selected 24-hour forecast beats persistence and 2 where it does not. A negative improvement is a loss, not a suppressed result. Mode distinguishes live evidence from backtests.
Current zone comparison
Open the full scorecard →| Zone | Volt MAE | Persistence MAE | Improvement | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK1 | 19.89 | 27.88 | +28.7% | live |
| IE-SEM | 14.94 | 20.85 | +28.3% | live |
| NO4 | 7.35 | 10.24 | +28.2% | live |
| CZ | 18.13 | 25.26 | +28.2% | live |
| AT | 19.05 | 26.18 | +27.2% | live |
| HU | 19.89 | 27.29 | +27.1% | live |
| RS | 25.03 | 33.62 | +25.6% | live |
| HR | 21.37 | 27.53 | +22.4% | live |
| BG | 21.75 | 27.75 | +21.6% | live |
| PL | 28.23 | 35.88 | +21.3% | live |
| SE1 | 20.18 | 25.44 | +20.7% | live |
| SK | 23.42 | 29.52 | +20.7% | live |
| SI | 22.50 | 28.01 | +19.7% | live |
| NL | 20.30 | 25.24 | +19.6% | live |
| XK | 27.33 | 33.65 | +18.8% | live |
| RO | 23.08 | 28.10 | +17.9% | live |
| EE | 35.03 | 42.58 | +17.7% | live |
| ME | 20.04 | 24.19 | +17.1% | live |
| IT-NORD | 17.19 | 20.65 | +16.8% | live |
| IT-SARD | 19.45 | 23.27 | +16.4% | live |
| IT-CALA | 18.68 | 22.14 | +15.6% | live |
| BE | 21.18 | 25.03 | +15.4% | live |
| IT-SUD | 18.99 | 22.13 | +14.2% | live |
| AL | 24.47 | 28.48 | +14.1% | live |
| CH | 17.51 | 20.31 | +13.8% | live |
| IT-CSUD | 19.08 | 22.13 | +13.8% | live |
| IT-CNOR | 19.23 | 22.16 | +13.2% | live |
| DK2 | 24.83 | 28.43 | +12.7% | live |
| FI | 25.86 | 29.60 | +12.7% | live |
| MK | 18.14 | 20.60 | +12.0% | live |
| NO1 | 13.55 | 15.38 | +11.9% | live |
| FR | 20.74 | 23.25 | +10.8% | live |
| IT-SICI | 22.92 | 25.42 | +9.8% | live |
| LT | 35.66 | 38.55 | +7.5% | live |
| NO2 | 16.68 | 17.78 | +6.2% | live |
| LV | 36.18 | 38.54 | +6.1% | live |
| NO3 | 19.32 | 20.38 | +5.2% | live |
| NO5 | 11.85 | 12.48 | +5.0% | live |
| SE2 | 26.20 | 27.39 | +4.3% | live |
| ES | 19.16 | 20.03 | +4.3% | live |
| SE4 | 34.55 | 36.12 | +4.3% | live |
| GR | 23.49 | 24.24 | +3.1% | live |
| PT | 19.12 | 19.71 | +3.0% | live |
| SE3 | 31.32 | 31.55 | +0.7% | live |
| DE-LU | 25.11 | 25.09 | -0.1% | live |
| UA | 1,724.35 | 1,599.50 | -7.8% | live |
Source: the same live `forecast_accuracy` ledger used by /accuracy. Values update with the board; no favorable rows are selected by this page.
Reproduce and cite
Retrieve the underlying price or forecast curve through the documented API. Cite as “Voltcast Research, https://voltcast.com/research/forecast-vs-persistence, accessed 2026-08-29.”