Zone explainer · recomputed continuously
What drives electricity prices in Spain?
Data window: trailing 30 days (mix) and 2026 year-to-date (prices) · recomputed 2026-07-13T23:43Z
52.53
YTD avg €/MWh
662
negative hours YTD
-9.83 / 247.15
YTD min / max €/MWh
volt-4
serving forecast model
The generation mix (trailing 30 days)
ES is a variable-renewables market — wind and solar together supplied 52.3% of recent generation. Weather IS the price: sunny, windy middays crush prices (the 662 negative hours this year cluster exactly there), while calm, dark evening peaks hand the market back to gas. The daily spread this creates is the business case for every battery and flexible consumer in the zone.
The zone has cleared negative 662 hours so far this year (live counters on the tracker), inside a year-to-date range of -9.83 to 247.15 €/MWh. Our serving model (volt-4) currently runs 9.2% less error than the naive baseline (backtest, 29 scored days) — verified daily on the public scorecard.
Method. Mix shares from realized generation (ENTSO-E A75, trailing 30 days); price stats from hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (2026 YTD). Every figure recomputes continuously — this page is a query, not an essay with a shelf life. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com".