Zone explainer · recomputed continuously
What drives electricity prices in Ukraine?
Data window: trailing 30 days (mix) and 2026 year-to-date (prices) · recomputed 2026-07-15T00:05Z
6695.02
YTD avg €/MWh
0
negative hours YTD
10 / 15000
YTD min / max €/MWh
volt-3
serving forecast model
UA is a genuinely mixed system. No single technology sets the price every hour, so the merit order shifts across the day — renewables' output decides which plant is marginal, and that plant's fuel decides the price. Expect weather-driven volatility layered over a fuel-cost floor.
The zone has cleared negative 0 hours so far this year (live counters on the tracker), inside a year-to-date range of 10 to 15000 €/MWh. Our serving model (volt-3) currently runs 6.9% less error than the naive baseline (backtest, 29 scored days) — verified daily on the public scorecard.
Method. Mix shares from realized generation (ENTSO-E A75, trailing 30 days); price stats from hourly means of published day-ahead auction results (2026 YTD). Every figure recomputes continuously — this page is a query, not an essay with a shelf life. Cite as "Voltcast Research, voltcast.com".